Thursday, May 21, 2026
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Interest Rate Markets

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10-Year Treasury at 4.5%, 30-Year Crosses 5% as Fed Hike Odds Hit 50%

10-Year Treasury at 4.5%, 30-Year Crosses 5% as Fed Hike Odds Hit 50%

Treasury yields have surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year at 4.5%, the 30-year above 5% — as markets price a 50% probability of Fed rate hikes. Jerome Powell's departure signals a structural policy reversal, not a pause. The tightening is globally synchronized, with ECB officials flagging a June hike, the BOJ pushing early, and G7 finance chiefs convening over a worldwide debt selloff.

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