Fed Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 1-in-3: The Warsh Era Reshapes Every Trade
Fed funds futures now price just a one-in-three chance of any 2026 rate cut, as US CPI hits 3.8% and Jerome Powell exits on May 15. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh is expected to hold or tighten, crushing long-duration bond bets and forcing capital into AI infrastructure over rate-sensitive financials. ECB hawkish signaling adds global pressure, leaving traders with nowhere to hide in classic dovish plays.
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