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News articleNasdaq· March 3, 2026

Stocks Sink as Crude Oil Surge Rattles Markets

View original at nasdaq.com
Stocks Sink as Crude Oil Surge Rattles Markets The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -2.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -2.37%…
Opening lines of the source · Nasdaq · short snapshot — read the full document at the original

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  • We will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence
  • Combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives were completed

    80% confidence
  • Additional Fed interest rate cuts will be warranted if inflation slows further once most of the impact of tariffs has passed

    80% confidence
  • The real-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence
  • Inflation has been above the Fed's objective for nearly five years now, so I don't think we have room to be complacent

    80% confidence
  • Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by 4.6%

    80% confidence
  • Iran's leaders should capitulate

    80% confidence
  • S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by 8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence

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What we're seeing
Autumn 2026 Biopharma Catalyst Season: Late-Breaking Data, FDA Milestones and the Rise of AI-Designed Drugs
Late-September and early-October 2026 conferences (EASD, EADV, IGCS) brought a cluster of positive late-breaking trial readouts. These covered obesity and metabolic disease (Novo Nordisk's CagriSema), immunology (Lilly's EBGLYSS, tulisokibart) and oncology (Rina-S, Agenus BOT+BAL). Ahead lie hard regulatory catalysts, led by the 14 Nov 2026 FDA PDUFA date for ivonescimab. At the same time, Insilico-style AI-designed drugs such as rentosertib are showing anti-aging signals. That points to AI-driven drug discovery moving from concept toward clinical validation. Unrelated tech and regulatory items (Tesla Cybercab probe, xAI litigation, OpenAI agent incident) and the speculative QAIAx claims are peripheral to this story.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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