Trump’s tariffs bring in record revenue, could reduce deficit by $4T, but will American households pay the price?

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• Changes in tariffs will shrink the size of the U.S. economy due to reduced investment and productivity while making goods more expensive

  80% confidence

• Trump's tariffs are being paid by American importers who can pass them off to consumers

  80% confidence

• AARP has saved $100 billion for members on Medicare prescription drug costs over a decade

  80% confidence

• Trump administration policies are driving up consumers' cost of living in four specific areas: new cars, health insurance, products for children, and cookout staples and other foods

  80% confidence

• Customs revenues would total $80 billion in fiscal year 2025, close to the average of the previous five years

  80% confidence

• Goal of using tariff revenue to pay off federal debt and potentially provide Americans with a rebate check

  80% confidence

• Tariff revenue combined with reduced federal borrowing will reduce federal interest costs by an additional $0.7 trillion, totaling $4 trillion in reduced deficits between now and 2035

  80% confidence

• American households could lose $2,400 in buying power in 2025 alone due to tariffs

  80% confidence

• Historically, tariff revenue has never accounted for more than about 2% of total federal government revenues in the modern era, but with current tariffs could go up to 5% or perhaps even higher

  80% confidence

• Increases in tariffs from January 6 to August 19, 2025 will decrease primary deficits by $3.3 trillion if higher tariffs persist for the 2025-2035 period

  80% confidence

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