Can Kevin Warsh Tighten Policy Without Crossing Trump?

What we drew from this source

The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• Trump publicly told Warsh to be totally independent and just do a great job.

  60% confidence

• The 4% unemployment rate provides political cover for the Federal Reserve to pursue aggressive monetary tightening.

  60% confidence

• The CNBC Fast Money panel consensus is that there are now completely equal odds of either a rate hike or a rate cut as the Federal Reserve's next strategic policy move.

  60% confidence

• The CNBC panel concluded that Warsh's path of least resistance for tightening is quantitative tightening of the balance sheet rather than hiking the federal funds rate, because QT is technical, slow-moving, and rarely makes the evening news.

  60% confidence

• The macroeconomic case for resuming aggressive central bank balance sheet runoff is becoming incredibly straightforward for market participants, given Core PCE at the 91st percentile of its trailing twelve-month range.

  60% confidence

• A significant disconnect exists between complacent options markets and distressed consumer sentiment, creating risk for investors.

  60% confidence

• JPMorgan's chief economist warned that the Goldilocks economic period is officially ending, signaling a structural shift in monetary conditions.

  60% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yields Hit 5% as $39 Trillion Debt Reshapes Global Investment →