Iran war leads to UK mortgage rate rises

What we drew from this source

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• In the short term these increases will not see mortgage costs rocket but improvements made in recent weeks could unwind quickly

  80% confidence

• Periods of geopolitical tension tend to feed quickly into financial markets through swap rates, which underpin fixed mortgage pricing

  80% confidence

• Borrowers considering a new fixed-rate deal should secure the rate sooner rather than later

  80% confidence

• Securing a rate early can provide protection because most lenders allow borrowers to switch to a lower rate before completion if pricing improves

  80% confidence

• The conflict in the Middle East has led to market expectation of higher inflationary pressure causing rate cuts to be slowed or put on hold, which pushes up the cost for lenders when pricing fixed-rate mortgages

  80% confidence

• Once we enter this cycle of lenders adjusting their rates, it almost invariably results in others following suit

  80% confidence

• Periods of market volatility can lead to lenders adjusting pricing quickly, so borrowers approaching a purchase or remortgage may want to keep a close eye on rates

  80% confidence

• The current uncertainty means upward pressure on rates doesn't look likely to ease quickly, though market reaction is at least levelling off for now

  80% confidence

• We are now seeing the first big name lender moves begin to feed through

  80% confidence

• The withdrawal of 60% LTV products was part of a reprice following changes to swaps after the Bank of England held interest rates

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source