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Source document· March 3, 2026

Stocks Sink as Crude Oil Surge Rattles Markets

View original at nasdaq.com
Stocks Sink as Crude Oil Surge Rattles Markets The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -2.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -2.37%…
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  • Inflation has been above the Fed's objective for nearly five years now, so I don't think we have room to be complacent

    80% confidence

  • We will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives were completed

    80% confidence

  • The real-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by 4.6%

    80% confidence

  • Iran's leaders should capitulate

    80% confidence

  • S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by 8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence

  • Additional Fed interest rate cuts will be warranted if inflation slows further once most of the impact of tariffs has passed

    80% confidence

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What we're seeing
Obesity and Immunology Readouts, Big Pharma M&A and AI-Designed Drugs Converge Into a Q4 2026 Catalyst Wave
Late-stage data and deal activity are clustering ahead of Q4 2026. Novo Nordisk's CagriSema won Best Abstract at EASD 2026 for its brain and body (fMRI/MRI) data, Lilly showed ADtouch results for EBGLYSS and agreed to buy Merida Biosciences for $2.9B, and Merck's tulisokibart hit its Phase 2b endpoints. A key regulatory catalyst follows: the FDA PDUFA date for the ivonescimab BLA on 2026-11-14. AI-designed rentosertib showing anti-aging effects adds a speculative AI-drug-discovery thread, while QAIAx's microcities trial and QIII pilot (planned 2027-01-01) are peripheral, forecast-only items.
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Signals we're tracking
Satellite-Terrestrial Network Integration Acceleration
Increased investment and launches in hybrid satellite-cellular networks across telecom industry; competitive responses from other carriers; regulatory activity around satellite spectrum; expansion of emergency/rural connectivity use cases
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Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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