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Source document· March 2, 2026

Stocks Recover as Iran War Pushes Energy and Defense Stocks Higher

View original at nasdaq.com
Stocks Recover as Iran War Pushes Energy and Defense Stocks Higher The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.13%…
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  • Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%

    80% confidence

  • Combat operations could last for weeks until all objectives were completed

    80% confidence

  • Full-year EPS forecast of $2.38

    80% confidence

  • Iran has no intention of negotiating with the US

    80% confidence

  • S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence

  • The real-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to the estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Iran's leaders must capitulate

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
Obesity and Immunology Readouts, Big Pharma M&A and AI-Designed Drugs Converge Into a Q4 2026 Catalyst Wave
Late-stage data and deal activity are clustering ahead of Q4 2026. Novo Nordisk's CagriSema won Best Abstract at EASD 2026 for its brain and body (fMRI/MRI) data, Lilly showed ADtouch results for EBGLYSS and agreed to buy Merida Biosciences for $2.9B, and Merck's tulisokibart hit its Phase 2b endpoints. A key regulatory catalyst follows: the FDA PDUFA date for the ivonescimab BLA on 2026-11-14. AI-designed rentosertib showing anti-aging effects adds a speculative AI-drug-discovery thread, while QAIAx's microcities trial and QIII pilot (planned 2027-01-01) are peripheral, forecast-only items.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
Satellite-Terrestrial Network Integration Acceleration
Increased investment and launches in hybrid satellite-cellular networks across telecom industry; competitive responses from other carriers; regulatory activity around satellite spectrum; expansion of emergency/rural connectivity use cases
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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Stocks Recover as Iran War Pushes Energy and Defense Stocks Higher — Source | Via News | ViaNews Market