UBS Group Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

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• Despite expecting Swiss franc rates to remain at current levels through 2026, management said P&C full-year NII is modeled to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage in U.S. dollars, supported by FX translation, the liability management exercise, and loan growth

  80% confidence

• UBS aims to do more than $3 billion in share repurchases in 2026, depending on financial performance, maintaining a CET1 ratio of around 14%, and clarity on Switzerland's future regulatory regime

  80% confidence

• UBS expects quarterly credit loss expense of around CHF 75 million on average given a mixed Swiss credit backdrop and a more challenging economic outlook

  80% confidence

• UBS expects the liquidity coverage ratio to remain around current levels given Swiss liquidity rules that were fully phased in by the end of 2024

  80% confidence

• Management guided to an underlying return on CET1 capital of approximately 13% and a cost-income ratio of around 73% for full-year 2026, with savings weighted to the second half as decommissioning work ramps after Swiss booking center migrations are completed

  80% confidence

• Revenue momentum in core franchises and cost discipline generated 9 percentage points of positive jaws

  80% confidence

• The firm remains on track toward its post-integration profitability targets

  80% confidence

• UBS is maintaining flexibility in dividend upstreaming and buyback decisions while awaiting clearer regulatory rules from the Swiss Federal Council

  80% confidence

• The pace of capital upstreaming has accelerated versus earlier expectations, though it had always planned to upstream that capital

  80% confidence

• 2025 was the investment bank's strongest top-line year on record, with CHF 11.8 billion of revenue, up 18%, achieved with essentially no incremental RWA

  80% confidence

• For full-year 2026, management expects GWM NII to increase by low single digits year over year

  80% confidence

• FX-driven headwinds on leverage ratios require pacing intercompany dividends, and UBS now expects UBS AG to operate with a standalone CET1 ratio of around 14% for the foreseeable future

  80% confidence

• The sequential decline in CET1 capital ratio was largely due to CET1 capital reduction as strong operating performance was more than offset by CHF 4.1 billion of accruals for shareholder returns

  80% confidence

• CHF 14 billion of outflows in the Americas in Q4 largely reflected recruiting-related impacts

  80% confidence

• The final phase of Swiss client migrations remains a key dependency for unlocking additional savings

  80% confidence

• UBS has delivered CHF 10.7 billion of cumulative gross run-rate cost saves to date

  80% confidence

• For the first quarter, UBS expects a low single-digit percentage decline in GWM net interest income, with positive loan volume and deposit mix effects more than offset by day count and deposit rates

  80% confidence

• Replacing the expensive legacy Credit Suisse funding is expected to benefit net interest income in Global Wealth Management and Personal & Corporate Banking in coming years and reduce funding drag in Non-Core and Legacy

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source