Fed Rate Cut Odds Sit at 1-in-3 as G-7 Hold Cycle and Hawkish Powell Successor Converge
Futures markets price only a 1-in-3 probability of a Fed rate cut in 2026 as G-7 central banks lock into a synchronized hold cycle. Jerome Powell's term expires May 15, with hawkish frontrunner Kevin Warsh signaling tighter-for-longer policy. Cloud and fintech equities have already repriced: CLOD -14%, WCLD -22%, SKYY -10%, FICO -6%.
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